Is Windows 8 a bust? It’s far too early to tell, but some analysts are already predicting some pretty major changes at Microsoft if the company can’t turn its latest operating system into a hit. In fact, the company’s CEO may be in trouble.

The success of Windows 8, at least according to analysts, is being pegged on its adoption in mobile. Consumers are increasingly moving their spending to mobile devices and Microsoft has been consistently late to the party. Windows Phone 8 is only starting to catch on after years of abysmal sales for Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7 line, and the Surface isn’t performing as well as it could.

Carolina Milanesi, an analyst for Gartner, told the New York Post that “there is lots at sake in terms of the mobile segment.” She went on to say that Microsoft “needs to be successful in mobile.” It’s this success that may decide whether or not Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer has a job in the future. He has bet the entire future of Microsoft on Windows 8, and that bet may not play out.

Of course, all of this is pure speculation on the part of analysts. They’re paid to make predictions, and those predictions sometimes end up wrong. Microsoft made a smart move by making the Surface RT available at more retailers, and consumers may really just be skipping on the Surface RT in favor of the Surface Pro. It’s all about being in the right place at the right time, and Microsoft’s mobile division may have its moment in 2013.

As for Windows 8 itself, it’s only been a few months since its release. The operating system is outpacing Windows 7 in terms of upgrades, but there’s still not much data to go on to make a definitive call as to its success or failure. I’d say wait until the middle of next year, and the potential launch of Windows Blue, to see if Windows 8 really is the failure that some analysts expect it to be.