Tesla has revealed its roadmap for the much-anticipated rollout of its Robotaxi service. For the first time, the Tesla AI team released an official timeline for upcoming features, offering a glimpse into the future of autonomous vehicles. This roadmap, combined with Elon Musk’s continuous updates and a hint at an October 10 event, has many believing that Tesla is on the verge of revolutionizing the transportation industry yet again.

The unveiling of Tesla’s Robotaxi plans is significant not just for Tesla’s future revenue streams but for the broader vision of full autonomy on public roads. The roadmap, which spans from September 2024 to Q2 2025, outlines key improvements in Full-Self Driving (FSD) technology, Cybertruck integration, and the long-awaited Smart Summon feature, all crucial to making Robotaxis a reality.

A Precise, Feature-Rich Roadmap

For the first time, Tesla’s AI team provided specific dates and milestones for features set to roll out in the coming months. According to the roadmap, September 2024 will see the introduction of FSD version 12.5.2, which is set to triple the miles driven between necessary interventions. This update will be available on both the AI3 and AI4 hardware platforms, thanks to a unified model that delivers equivalent performance across both versions.

“This is the first time they’ve dropped a roadmap like this,” remarked Tesla enthusiast Herbert, host of the YouTube channel Brighter with Herbert. “It’s not just Elon Musk tweeting a vague timeline. This is Tesla’s AI team officially putting dates and features out there, which means they must feel really confident that these features are ready or in advanced testing.”

In addition to improvements in FSD, September will also bring significant updates for Tesla’s Cybertruck, including Cybertruck Autopark and FSD functionality. Eye-tracking with sunglasses—a key safety feature for autonomy—is also set for release, along with end-to-end network functionality for highway driving, a long-awaited development for those following Tesla’s self-driving ambitions.

The Long-Awaited Version 13: Coming in October

The roadmap also revealed that FSD Version 13 is slated for October 2024, offering a sixfold improvement in miles driven between necessary interventions. “It’s interesting how they’re being so precise with the improvements,” said Herbert. “Instead of the vague ‘five to ten times’ improvements Musk has mentioned in the past, they’re now saying six times exactly. This kind of specificity suggests that the AI team is measuring these improvements rigorously.”

A particularly exciting feature in the October release is “unpark, park, and reverse” in FSD. “Unpark” seems akin to an advanced version of Smart Summon, allowing users to remotely direct their vehicle out of a parking space. This capability is especially valuable in crowded urban environments, where parking spots are tight and difficult to navigate.

Tesla’s Smart Summon, currently in beta with around 1,000 testers, is already creating buzz for its ability to autonomously drive through parking lots. Videos circulating on social media show the feature working impressively, with vehicles navigating complex parking scenarios. “It’s still not perfect, but it’s fast and functional. The fact that it can come right to your phone’s location within a few feet is impressive,” noted Herbert. This, combined with the upcoming “unpark” feature, will push Tesla further ahead in the race for autonomous driving.

Going Global: FSD in Europe and China

One of the most significant developments in Tesla’s roadmap is the expansion of FSD outside of North America. FSD in Europe and China is expected in Q1 2025, pending regulatory approval. The international rollout of FSD has the potential to add millions of new users. Longtime Tesla analyst Roland Percher estimates that in China alone, FSD could attract 2 million new customers with a 35% take rate, potentially adding $8 billion in profit annually.

However, regulatory hurdles remain a challenge, particularly in Europe, where Tesla has faced stiff resistance from some governments regarding autonomous driving. “Europe will likely be slower to approve, but I expect Norway to be the first to greenlight it. That could happen as early as January,” predicted Herbert. “China, on the other hand, is already seeing many companies successfully running autonomous driving programs, so I wouldn’t be surprised if FSD gets approved there soon.”

Cybertruck and the Path to Full Autonomy

Tesla’s Cybertruck, set for release later this year, will also be a crucial part of the Robotaxi roadmap. The Cybertruck represents a different form factor compared to Tesla’s other vehicles, and if Tesla can make FSD work on this platform, it will signal a significant leap toward full autonomy. As Herbert explained, “If Tesla can make FSD work on the Cybertruck, which is a completely different form factor, it’s a sign that they can adapt their FSD technology to any vehicle, whether it’s a semi-truck or a luxury sedan.”

The Cybertruck’s FSD capability, combined with the rollout of AI3 and AI4 hardware, will allow Tesla to move towards a unified FSD platform across all its vehicles. Herbert believes this is a key milestone. “Once all vehicles—whether it’s a Model S or a Cybertruck—are on the same FSD stack, Tesla will be that much closer to launching its Robotaxi fleet.”

What Does This Mean for Tesla’s Stock?

The long-term implications for Tesla’s business are profound. Analysts have long speculated about the potential revenue from FSD subscriptions, and with Tesla nearing feature-complete autonomy, the financial windfall could be massive. “Analysts aren’t even factoring in FSD revenue for the next year,” Herbert said. “But once FSD is global and RoboTaxi-ready, it’s going to drive demand for Tesla vehicles like never before.”

Elon Musk has repeatedly stated that once full autonomy is achieved, Tesla’s existing fleet of vehicles—estimated to reach 7 million by December 2024—will effectively “come alive” as autonomous Robotaxis. This could have significant ramifications for Tesla’s earnings, as more and more consumers opt for FSD to take advantage of the autonomy features.

In China, for example, if Tesla achieves a 35% take rate on FSD subscriptions, it could add billions to Tesla’s bottom line. And it’s not just FSD subscriptions that will drive revenue; the very fact that Tesla offers autonomy will likely increase demand for Tesla vehicles. “FSD is a demand driver,” Herbert said. “When people see Tesla’s cars driving themselves, they’ll want to buy one. That’s going to boost sales significantly, especially in regions like Europe where FSD isn’t available yet.”

October 10th: The Big Reveal?

With the October 10th event looming, there is rampant speculation about what Tesla will reveal. The event, set to take place at Warner Brothers Studios, is expected to showcase Tesla’s Robotaxi capabilities. Some speculate that attendees may even get to experience Smart Summon and other FSD features firsthand.

“There’s a possibility that attendees will be able to use their own Tesla apps to hail a Robotaxi,” Herbert suggested. “That would be a game-changing demo—actually letting attendees use the technology themselves rather than just watching a pre-recorded demo.”

While much of the roadmap is focused on FSD, there’s also speculation that Tesla may integrate its AI-based language model, Grok, into its vehicles. “It would be incredible if Grok were integrated into the FSD stack, allowing users to communicate with their car verbally and direct it to specific locations,” Herbert said. However, Grok’s integration may still be a few months away, as Tesla’s immediate focus remains on refining its driving technology.

Roadmap is a Huge Step Forward

The company is closer than ever to realizing its vision of a fully autonomous future. The October 10 event is expected to be a significant milestone, showcasing the culmination of years of AI development and technological advancements. But as Herbert cautioned, “It’s not over yet. This roadmap is a huge step forward, but there’s still more work to be done before we’re seeing Robotaxis on every street.”